How Wigan Athletic can end Portsmouth’s unbeaten run…

Latics have enjoyed upsetting the odds already this season, but tomorrow’s clash with league leaders Portsmouth looks set to be our biggest challenge yet. Pompey have been really impressive under John Mousinho and play some of the best football in the EFL, and their unbeaten start proves it’s not just easy on the eye for the sake of it.

They’ve been a great example for a club like us in actual fact. Commit to a style of play, recruit accordingly and be patient in allowing the manager time to implement their way of playing. It’s exactly what we should do with Shaun Maloney and the early signs are we will be, but Portsmouth are further down the line with their process and we have to respect that.

Despite their great start I do believe Latics have the ingredients to cause them real problems. Our defensive frailties need to be fixed and I think this is the perfect game to prove to everyone that we can in fact shut teams out. I’m not expecting us to limit them to no chances but if we execute the plans that I’m going to suggest I do believe we’d have a good chance.

There are several ways to try and limit Pompey, whose style is very much inspired by Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton side. In truth, the way Latics currently set up isn’t the worst method, but I think we should change things up a little to give ourselves the best chance. I’ll touch on a few potential set-ups in this preview.

Set Up One – 5-3-2

This way of nullifying Portsmouth’s deep build up is what I’m hoping we go with as I believe it is the most likely to succeed. It’s largely inspired by a really interesting article written by @HancockAnalysis which you can check out in more depth here. Essentially, there are three vital things I believe we need in order to beat Pompey and on paper we have those components in our squad.

Firstly, we need a positionally intelligent and physically capable centre back, or ‘sweeper’. The other two centre backs need to be aggressive ‘stoppers’ who step forward to man mark the two Pompey central forwards before the kick is taken. Omar Rekik and Charlie Hughes probably suit the latter role which leave Liam Morrison as the best bet for the sweeper role. I like him there, his form has dipped slightly in the past few weeks but the role suits his intelligence off the ball, as well as his ball playing on it.

Secondly, we need wing backs capable of dealing with a direct ball out to the Portsmouth wingers if they choose to bypass our press, or lack of (more on that later). Sean Clare and Tom Pearce are both tall guys, quick enough to go tight on a winger if Pompey play it out short or cover the space behind them if they go long. In possession they’re very valuable too and with Steven Sessengon still a week or so away from returning this pair have to be our wing backs.

Thirdly, we desperately need to play three central midfielders tomorrow afternoon. Baba Adeeko and Liam Shaw have the athleticism to jump and press the Pompey full backs when they get the ball, whilst also being able to reset if the ball is switched. Matt Smith could do it too but I prefer him as the 6 in the middle, whilst someone like Thelo could give it a go if we want someone who offers us a bit more on the ball.

We need to make it a battle of ‘who blinks first’. Portsmouth will want us to come for them straight away, but in doing so we’ll lose our shape and they can pass into the space left by our movements. What I want us to do is stand still, wait for them to decide where they’re going to attack from and that’s when we make our move. This is where we need the athletic 8s as they won’t have loads of time to close the distance. Adeeko suits this job so well.

If we get it right we’ll limit them to harmless possession in their own half, and hopefully that’ll force them long where our tall back line should see us dominate. If we can catch them out with our non-baited press we should score some decent turnovers in high areas where two natural finishers in Wyke and Humphrys will see us get some good chances.

When they progress the ball up the pitch it’s important that we fall back into a 5-3-2 shape. The transition from our pressing shape into our mid-block shape has to be seamless, if we’re caught disjointed they’re good enough to find the gaps. It’s another reason why we need to pick our most athletic team as there’ll be a lot of short burst movements to contend with.

Our back five all have man-marking duties, with three free midfielders in front of them who can screen and cut passing lanes. Again, we want athletic 8s in this scenario to jump and press if the ball is switched from LCB to RCB. The two strikers need to cover Pompey’s CMs but again, we don’t want to be baited into pressing them too aggressively. They’ll be waiting to play a bounce pass into one of the previously shadowed CMs if we leave this structure.

This can be nullified by our 8 locking on to the un-shadowed CM but I’d rather not get to that stage in the first place. It might be hard for some fans to accept, especially as we’re at home, but our best bet in this game looks to play on the counter. There will be spells where we’ll see plenty of the ball, that’s almost always guaranteed with how we play, but it’s vital we’re faster with our build-up play tomorrow.

Portsmouth’s settled defence is very strong but like anyone they’re vulnerable to being caught out of shape. The power of Humphrys testing their last line will be vital whilst you always want a target man in games against strong possession-focused sides to help keep a hold of the ball. Adeeko and Shaw will have licence to get forward, as do the wing backs.

Negative? Maybe. Shaun Maloney has said he wants to go ‘toe for toe’ with Portsmouth which is nice to hear but we have to do things sensibly. My honest belief is if both teams go into this game trying to impose their style, they will come out on top. We have to compromise and understand that their weaknesses are there to be exploited, and as the saying goes the best move you can make is the one your opponent least wants you to…

Set Up Two – 4-3-3

This is what I expect us to play tomorrow. It’s a more front footed way of playing which is commendable but I do have my concerns about how open it leaves us. The upside is we don’t have to change anything in terms of our press or our build-up, those patterns should be learnt by now, but at the same time it’s horses for courses and as I’ve already mentioned we don’t want to be baited into pressing them too much.

From their goal kicks I’d expect to see this shape. Man for man defensively with Matt Smith screening in front to prevent the direct ball into the deep-lying forwards feet. Baba Adeeko should be just in front of Smith ready to engage whichever of their CMs looks to receive from a bounce pass. Thelo (LCM) and Humphrys (RW) are ready to engage their FBs whilst Godo (LW) and Wyke (ST) block direct passes into Pompey’s CMs.

The issues we will face with this is risk of leaving ourselves 4 vs 4 at the back. If our DM, in this case Matt Smith, is dragged forward it opens up the direct pass into Colby Bishop who is one of the best players in the division. Smith should look to pin Bishop between himself and Charlie Hughes, making it hard for him to recieve it immediately and hopefully frustrate him into going searching for the ball.

Like everything though we have to be fully committed to the plan. One player being half a yard out of position could kill us in this game as Portsmouth are good enough to find those gaps, and they’ll be thinking the same about us. If our front two are baited into pressing, if our wide players don’t lock on to their FBs quick enough, if Adeeko is caught in no-mans land or if our back 4 lose their 1 v 1 duels we’ll be in trouble. It’ll be a game of fine margins.

When Portsmouth progress the ball up the field we’ll fall into a 4-3-3 shape and look to nullify their threats by being compact. The midfield three should again look to limit passing options into their forwards but also have to be ready to fall back into our own box and defend the crosses that they put into the box.

One thing I’d like us to do is leave our front three high up the pitch as often as possible. If we can isolate Humphrys and Godo with their wide defenders it will limit their time on the ball, their ability to step out of defence and obviously give us a great chance on the counter attack. I don’t necessarily think it’ll happen but it would be quite fun if it did.

I would be concerned about our vulnerability in wide areas, that’s been an issue all season. In the graphic above Portsmouth’s no10 and 11 are the ones I’d be worried about, running onto balls inside our FBs and getting balls across the face of goal. We need to find ways of limiting opposition entries into our box. In this formation it’s a bit of a struggle but ultimately it comes down to anticipation and decision making.

Having the extra attacker should in theory make us more dangerous going forward, particularly if we can get our wingers 1 v 1 out wide. I spoke about playing Thelo as a LCM in my most recent article and he could offer us a lot in this game from that position. We want him to carry the ball forward and run at their unsettled defence, despite the fact he’s not overly quick he glides with the ball at his feet and will cause them a lot of problems.

Tom Pearce shouldn’t be too aggressive in this game, instead getting into deep crossing areas where he can cause Pompey problems without leaving us too open. Smith and Adeeko, assuming that’s the pairing, need to be stronger off the ball. Portsmouth have a very good midfield and we can’t be lightweight in there otherwise Liam Shaw HAS to be brought on.

Final Thoughts

The 4-3-3 is probably the system that we’ll end up going with. Am I happy with that? Not massively but it’s not the end of the world. I have faith in whatever system Maloney goes with but in my opinion we give ourselves the best chance by going with the 5-3-2. We have to look to stop them at source, if we can regularly prevent them progressing the ball forward from their first phase it gives us a great chance.

There will be times when they cut us open I have no doubt about that but we have to play the percentages somewhat. What formation gives us the best chance of limiting them whilst also giving us enough opportunities going forward to win the game? For me the answer to that is pretty clear, what do you think?

I hope you enjoyed this article! If these tactical previews are something you enjoy do let me know and I’ll make sure to release some more.

Up the Tics!